Decision Analysis for Management Judgment By Paul Goodwin, George Wright 3rd Edition
Author:Paul Goodwin, George Wright
Publishers John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Publish Date: 2004
Language. English
Category: Psychology
Book Code: 260
Pages 493
Rs 1800
Book Quality Black Paper
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About us
This book aims to make decision analysis accessible to managers and administrators in business and public sector organizations. Using practical examples, it shows how difficult decisions can be tackled in a structured way so that new insights emerge and a documented and defensible rationale for the decision is established. "Decision Analysis for Management Judgment is an essentially practical book which draws together ideas from a variety of disciplines - including psychology, management science and statistics. Assuming little or no prior knowledge of these disciplines, it will help both practising managers faced with the responsibility of making crucial decisions as well as students on management, business administration and decision analysis courses.
Contents
Foreword Lawrence D. Phillips ix
Preface xi
Chapter 1 Introduction 1
Chapter 2 How people make decisions involving
multiple objectives 15
Chapter 3 Decisions involving multiple objectives:
SMART 27
Chapter 4 Introduction to probability 71
Chapter 5 Decision making under uncertainty 95
Chapter 6 Decision trees and influence diagrams 143
Chapter 7 Applying simulation to decision problems 179
Chapter 8 Revising judgments in the light of new
information 215
Chapter 9 Biases in probability assessment 247
Chapter 10 Methods for eliciting probabilities 277
Chapter 11 Risk and uncertainty management 297
Chapter 12 Decisions involving groups of individuals 309
Chapter 13 Resource allocation and negotiation
problems 329
Chapter 14 Decision framing and cognitive inertia 355
Chapter 15 Scenario planning: an alternative way of
dealing with uncertainty 377viii Contents
Chapter 16 The analytic hierarchy process 413
Chapter 17 Alternative decision-support systems 427
Suggested answers to selected questions 463
Index 471
Complex decisions
Imagine that you are facing the following problem. For several years
you have been employed as a manager by a major industrial company,
but recently you have become dissatisfied with the job. You are still
interested in the nature of the work and most of your colleagues have
a high regard for you, but company politics are getting you down, and
there appears to be little prospect of promotion within the foreseeable
future. Moreover, the amount of work you are being asked to carry out
seems to be increasing relentlessly and you often find that you have to
work late in the evenings and at weekends.
One day you mention this to an old friend at a dinner party. ‘There’s
an obvious solution,’ he says. ‘Why don’t you set up on your own as a
consultant? There must be hundreds of companies that could use your
experience and skills, and they would pay well. I’m certain that you’d
experience a significant increase in your income and there would be
other advantages as well. You’d be your own boss, you could choose to
work or take vacations at a time that suited you rather than the company
and you’d gain an enormous amount of satisfaction from solving a
variety of challenging problems.’
Initially, you reject the friend’s advice as being out of the question, but
as the days go by the idea seems to become more attractive. Over the
years you have made a large number of contacts through your existing
job and you feel reasonably confident that you could use these to build
a client base. Moreover, in addition to your specialist knowledge and
analytical ability you have a good feel for the way organizations tick,
you are a good communicator and colleagues have often complimented
you on your selling skills. Surely you would succeed.
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